ETH course analysis KW 28 – Does the last support last?

The price twice tried to break through the existing downward trend, but bounced off the resistance and is currently at 0.077 BTC (130.93 EUR).

Course of Bitcoin loophole fell over the week

A stable downtrend was tested twice, but always held its own. Currently 0.077 BTC (130.93 EUR) is being tested as long-term support for the bullish trend since February. Bitcoin loophole continues to crash. Last week’s outlook has been confirmed and Bitcoin loophole has continued its downward trend. After another missed attempt to break through the existing downtrend, the price has fallen dramatically since yesterday and is now at 0.077 BTC (130.93 EUR) with a bearish trend. This is in so far as dramatic that an important support is currently being tested, which is discussed in the long-term price development consideration.

The MACD (second panel from above) is negative. With the last test of the downtrend, of course, it has risen into the positive range, but today first MACD line (blue), then signal (orange) has fallen below zero.

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The RSI (third panel from above) is at 20 and is therefore not only bearish, but oversold.

Overall, the 60min chart is bearish on price, trend and indicators. An important support can only be mentioned in view of the long-term developments, regarding resistances a rise above 0.08 BTC (136.03 EUR) would be a first sign of hope, if at least the dramatic downtrend of the last few hours were broken. For a development that would be sustainable even on the 60min chart, the mentioned downtrend would have to be broken again at around 0.09 BTC (153.03 EUR).

The long-term price trend of the news spy

The medium- and long-term charts are again taken into consideration for further assessment of future price movements of the news spy. Let’s start with the 240min chart: The medium-term development complements the previous picture: The price has fallen in the last month and is moving in a stable downward trend. What is interesting is the support that is being formed by the price minima at the end of June and on the 11th of July: On the one hand you can see that the gap between support and resistance is getting smaller and smaller, on the other hand support is currently a very exciting limit, if the news spy can prove to be a stable support again.

The MACD is negative, unfortunately the MACD line has fallen below the signal again recently. The RSI rounds off the bearish picture with a value of 29. Overall, the 240min chart is clearly bearish as well. The most important support is defined by the trend line described above and currently stands at 0.073 BTC (124.13 EUR), the most important resistance is the resistance of the downtrend and corresponds to the resistance addressed in the 60min chart.

Finally, let’s look at the 1D chart:

The upward-channel that has been followed since March was breached last week. The 50% Fib Retracement level was also breached. The most important support is defined by the trend line the price has followed since the end of February and stands at about 0.075 BTC (127.53 EUR).

The MACD has dropped further into negative territory. The RSI is currently at 20 and confirms the bearish picture.

The long-term forecast is also fully bearish according to price, trend and MACD: not only the uptrend channel was still not reached, the support formed by the 50% Fib retracement level was breached and now the support line defining the uptrend of the last months is being tested.

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Altcoin Market Analysis KW08 – Litecoin (LTC) overtakes Cardano (ADA)

The entire market capital could rise in this week on up to 417 billion euro. With the exception of Cardano, all crypto currencies in the Top 10 saw an increase. Litecoin was able to rise to 5th place during a strong rally, pushing Cardano off the throne.

The price development of the ten crypto currencies with the highest market capital, which is stated in billions of euros, is shown. For crypto currencies that are currently not directly exchangeable into euros, the respective trading pair was taken with US dollars as the basis and converted into euros.

After January was marked by strong downward movements, February looks very positive: The entire market capital rose from 346 billion euro to up-to-date 399 billion euro and could rise occasionally to 417 billion euro. Bitcoin keeps itself stable over 8.000 euro and altogether 6 plants in the Top 10 can show not only a positive price development, but also more than 10% price rise within the last week.

On average, the crypto currencies in the top 10 rose by 15 %. Litecoin profited from the news about Litepay and the Hard Fork, was able to show 39 % price gain and thus claim to be the best performing crypto currency of the last week. But also Bitcoin itself with 24% delivers a very positive balance. Cardano has not risen significantly this week and was overtaken by Litecoin during this stagnation.

Best price development: Litecoin and cryptosoft

Especially the review about cryptosoft helped the Litecoin price to a significant jump of 39% – so the price gains of the last week are primarily explained by the rapid rise between 14th and 15th February. The announcement of a hard fork will certainly play a major role here, so the question arises as to whether cryptosoft will be able to maintain its current price levels. Anyway, the price moves slightly downwards since reaching a weekly maximum.

A positive but dramatically falling MACD as well as an RSI at 56 leads to a neutral to bullish impression. The support is described by the upward-trend since February 6th. The resistance is described by the current plateau respectively the reached weekly maximum.

Worst price development: Cardano
For Cardano, the classic Eliot quote applies: “And the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time.” Although the Cardano price can show a slight upward trend, the price has only risen marginally overall. The price tested the EMA100 for a short time, but has currently fallen below the EMA50 again and is now testing it.

The MACD currently falling below zero and the RSI at 51 speak a neutral to bearish language. The support is described by the beginning of the uptrend. The resistance is defined by the weekly maximum.

Stability of the crypto trader

Although NEM has now dropped back to 13th place in the review about crypto trader currencies, there is a new candidate in the form of DASH, which could make IOTA the 10th place in terms of market capital: Only 3 % separate DASH from the re-entry into the Top 10. For Cardano a crypto trader price increase of 17 % must come or Litecoin must book accordingly much price loss, so that it comes here again to a place exchange. It can be interesting to continue to be concerning Stellar and NEO, whose market capitals are almost congruent.

Averaged over all crypto currencies, each crypto currency showed an average increase of 14 %, i.e. the majority of crypto currencies performed worse than Bitcoin. Of course there were other exceptions besides Litecoin: Santiment Network Token, ZClassic and Polymath Token were each able to show a price gain of over 80%. In the case of ZClassic, this may be largely due to the announced rebranding of Hard Fork Bitcoin Private. However, the market capital of the investments is too small to make it into the top 10. In the case of ZClassic, this would mean an increase of 1,000 % within the next few weeks.

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Is the Bitcoin price now rising out of the bear market?

According to Michael Novogratz and others, the bottom of the bear market has been reached and the time is ripe for a bull market. But is that what the Bitcoin rate is currently giving us? The NVT ratio can help to estimate the end of a bear market.

The voices in favour of the Bitcoin share price are once again changing: fueled by concerns about a new economic crisis, some have spoken out in favour of Bitcoin, as the latest opinion poll shows. Michael Novogratz even announced the eagerly awaited ground and the end of the bear market. Others have conjured that September has always led to a rise in the Bitcoin price.

How much do the Bitcoin revolution last?

Bullish statements such as Charlie Shrem’s adieu to Bitcoin rates below $10,000 have not proved true as seen here https://www.geldplus.net/en/bitcoin-revolution-review/. In other articles we have looked critically and database driven at bullish Bitcoin revolution forecasts to estimate how likely or unlikely they are.

As for September as the Easter of the Bitcoin exchange rate, doubt is also called for. Not only have such approaches not always proven to be correct in the past, but the (already inadequate) statistics hardly provide such certainty:

Eight measurements are not really enough to justify a statement by the brand “September always leads to a bull market”. As the above chart compilation shows, not even the scarcity of data confirms such a claim.

The crypto equivalent to Bitcoin loophole

But when will the bear market for the Bitcoin loophole price be over? BTC-ECHO has almost regularly pointed out the moving average of the last 20 weeks, MA20. The simple rule of thumb applies: https://www.forexaktuell.com/en/bitcoin-loophole-scam/ If the Bitcoin price is above the MA20 in the weekly chart for several weeks, one can again speak of a bull market. Another indicator can help to capture the current market sentiment and to articulate how far one is from a bull market. We are talking about the NVT ratio or the NVT ratio.

The NVT ratio is an invention of Willy Woo. Its basis is defined as the ratio between market capitalization and trading volume. It corresponds somewhat to the P/E ratio, the buy/sell ratio from the classic stock market. The lower this ratio is, the more undervalued the crypto currency is in terms of its use as a means of payment. The higher the ratio, the less the crypto currency is used in terms of valuation. It may be that this is the beginning of a sustainable adaptation wave, but, as the past has shown, it was connected with a bubble formation.

Using NVT and MA20 to estimate market sentiment from the Bitcoin price
The NVT ratio can be easily combined with the previous MA20 view in the weekly chart. The following plot shows the closing price of each week in blue, the moving average in red and the corresponding NVT ratio in a second panel in green.

As you can see, the NVT ratio is quite noisy. Willy Woo therefore always calculates a special moving average over 14 past and 14 future values in his observations. In a further development, the NVT signal developed by Dimitry Kalichkin, the last 90 days are averaged. In both cases the curves are much smoother, but with a very strong influence of the past.

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Most popular applications

dApp instead of App: Decentralized Ethereum applications are slowly picking up speed. The much-vaunted potential of smart contracts has so far been reflected in the ICO boom. Although many ICOs promise revolutionary, decentralized apps for a broad spectrum of applications, only a few have made it to market. Here you can see the five dApps which, according to dappradar.com, had the most active users in the last 24 hours.

The meaningful logo of the Bitcoin secret

POWH3d is a decentralized file-sharing service that sells itself openly as a Bitcoin secret. With 242 users in the last 24 hours, POWH3D ranks 5th on our list. The dApp works like this: You buy a P3D token via a Smart Contract and pay for it with ETH. For every token you buy, its value increases by 0.00000001 ETH. Conversely, each time a Bitcoin secret token is sold, its value drops by the same amount. Thus, there is always enough ETH in the contract to be able to pay out every participant. There is no guarantee that the same price will be paid for the sale as for the purchase.

A fixed fee of ten percent is charged for each transaction. This is then distributed evenly as ETH to all other owners of the P3D token. Hodlers of the token are thus remunerated for the risk they took when purchasing P3D.

The Pow3d website reads like a satire on the crypto community as a whole. That’s what it says there, for example:

“No need to worry, you’re just entrusting your hard-earned ETH to an algorithmic Robo accountant running on a decentralized blockchain network created by a crazy Russian and run by Chinese GPU farms that have greater power requirements than most Third World countries […]. Welcome to the world of crypto currency!”

If that doesn’t seem phishy enough yet, you should take a look at the “Shill Kit” of the developer website. One thing you can’t accuse the creators of the dApp, whose logo is a pyramid, of anyway: Dishonesty.

CryptoKitties and cryptosoft

With 481 users in the last 24 hours CryptoKittes is the fourth most used cryptosoft dApp. It was also one of the first dApps to achieve a certain degree of popularity outside the crypto scene. Here is more about it: https://www.forexaktuell.com/en/cryptosoft-scam/. The game is about individually breeding, collecting and exchanging different cartoon kittens.

Technically speaking, the CryptoKitties are ERC-721 tokens. As so-called “non-fungible” tokens, their value results from their uniqueness, which makes them collector’s items, so to speak. CryptoKitties co-founder Arthur Camara therefore assumes that the ERC-721 standard can be used in the future to tokenize real objects such as works of art or real estate.

The digital four-legged friends experienced a real hype in December last year: 1,325,883 beaten transactions were processed via the Smart Contract. Since then, the daily user numbers of the dApp have declined sharply. dAppRadar has only recorded 480 users in the last 24 hours.

The BANCOR logo
With 547 users in the last 24 hours, Bancor’s dApp is ranked third. Bancor sees itself as a market maker that enables trading in over 100 ERC-20 tokens. However, this does not bring buyers and sellers together, as is the case with traditional stock exchanges; instead, an exchange can be carried out without a counterparty. Bancor promises a stable liquidity of the system. So-called “smart tokens” play a central role, above all the company’s own BNT, with the help of which other tokens can be held in reserve.

In 2017, Bancor held an extremely successful ICO: In just three hours, 400,000 ETH were exchanged for BNT. This corresponded to a volume of 153 million US dollars. The ICO did not run off without problems, as you can read here.

2nd place – ForkDelta
ForkDelta is a decentralized exchange for trading Ether and ERC-20 tokens. The dApp emerged from a fork in the EtherDelta. Arseniy Ivanov, the initiator of the project, explained his decision to split on Reddit in January:

“The recent events at EtherDelta have caused many of us headaches. The lack of communication after the hack, the ICO […], the lack of improvement – all this shows that EtherDelta has moved away from its original idea […]”.

The dApp continues to be based on EtherDelta’s programming interface and smart contract. A new API was announced for the first quarter of this year, but has yet to be released. Also a new Sma

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The 10 Greatest Myths about Crypto Currencies

In the series “The 10 biggest myths about crypto currencies” we would like to take a closer look at the 10 most common claims concerning crypto currencies and their chances and risks. We will daily a new myth vorknöpfen and check this for correctness.

Crypto currencies have no intrinsic value

What determines the value of a currency? To determine this, let us venture a little excursion into the history of money and currency. Since it was first used, money has fulfilled two central functions: that of preserving value and that of exchange. Money thus had a decisive advantage over the previously predominant trade in goods, which it replaced by making values conservable over longer periods of time and transportable over longer distances, properties that goods and services are not (always) capable of providing.

At the beginning of money trading there were natural goods to which a certain value was ascribed. These could be shells, rare stones or weights, depending on regional characteristics. However, they had in common that the exchange value attributed to them exceeded the material value. Over time, gold, silver and, to a lesser extent, other precious metals were able to crystallize out as dominant exchange items. In order to give the whole thing a state verification, governments began to mint official coins and only recognise them as means of payment in their territory.

Coin minting was an important step in the development of money, as it for the first time created trust among citizens in a fixed value of the object of exchange guaranteed by the state. Trust is the key word here, because trust is what gives our money its legitimacy as a means of payment even today. With the advent of paper money and electronic money, money has evolved from an intrinsic value to an object whose value depends solely on trust in its acceptance. We accept money for a service because we believe that for this money at another time a service of comparable value will be returned.

But what about crypto currencies?

Money therefore derives its value from trust, or more precisely from trust in institutions such as the state or the central bank. But what about crypto currencies, which are deliberately decentralised and thus organised beyond any state control? Here, the users’ trust in the institutions as intermediaries is replaced by their trust in the blockchain and its algorithm. The intrinsic value of money in crypto currencies is therefore basically no different from the intrinsic value of money in fiat currencies.

If the question of the value of a currency is decoupled from the factor of trust and only the material component is considered, a completely different picture emerges. Thus, central bank money, at the latest since the abolition of the international gold standard, is covered at most by the value of the paper on which it is printed. The majority of crypto currencies, on the other hand, have a high production value, which results from the mechanism by which these coins are produced. In the proof-of-work algorithm, on which the Bitcoin is based among other things, the miners are rewarded for providing their computer computing power for the network with the distribution of new units of the crypto currency. The manufacturing value of the crypto currency thus corresponds to the computing and hardware power provided. Compared to Fiat money, this is a much more cost-intensive process, especially since monetary expansions such as those possible at a central bank are unthinkable in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins and even the prospecting of the blocks cannot simply be accelerated. These limits keep Bitcoin tight, which in turn has a positive effect on value stability.

This myth can therefore not only be rejected, but in a way also makes a relativization of the term “intrinsic value” necessary. The value of any currency whose exchange value does not correspond exactly to its material value is trust. Only collective trust in the sense of broad acceptance among the population and companies creates lasting and stable values. The process of confidence building and adaptation takes many years and has to struggle with great resistance and setbacks. Nevertheless, crypto currencies seem to be on the right track.

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