Is the Bitcoin price now rising out of the bear market?

According to Michael Novogratz and others, the bottom of the bear market has been reached and the time is ripe for a bull market. But is that what the Bitcoin rate is currently giving us? The NVT ratio can help to estimate the end of a bear market.

The voices in favour of the Bitcoin share price are once again changing: fueled by concerns about a new economic crisis, some have spoken out in favour of Bitcoin, as the latest opinion poll shows. Michael Novogratz even announced the eagerly awaited ground and the end of the bear market. Others have conjured that September has always led to a rise in the Bitcoin price.

How much do the Bitcoin revolution last?

Bullish statements such as Charlie Shrem’s adieu to Bitcoin rates below $10,000 have not proved true as seen here In other articles we have looked critically and database driven at bullish Bitcoin revolution forecasts to estimate how likely or unlikely they are.

As for September as the Easter of the Bitcoin exchange rate, doubt is also called for. Not only have such approaches not always proven to be correct in the past, but the (already inadequate) statistics hardly provide such certainty:

Eight measurements are not really enough to justify a statement by the brand “September always leads to a bull market”. As the above chart compilation shows, not even the scarcity of data confirms such a claim.

The crypto equivalent to Bitcoin loophole

But when will the bear market for the Bitcoin loophole price be over? BTC-ECHO has almost regularly pointed out the moving average of the last 20 weeks, MA20. The simple rule of thumb applies: If the Bitcoin price is above the MA20 in the weekly chart for several weeks, one can again speak of a bull market. Another indicator can help to capture the current market sentiment and to articulate how far one is from a bull market. We are talking about the NVT ratio or the NVT ratio.

The NVT ratio is an invention of Willy Woo. Its basis is defined as the ratio between market capitalization and trading volume. It corresponds somewhat to the P/E ratio, the buy/sell ratio from the classic stock market. The lower this ratio is, the more undervalued the crypto currency is in terms of its use as a means of payment. The higher the ratio, the less the crypto currency is used in terms of valuation. It may be that this is the beginning of a sustainable adaptation wave, but, as the past has shown, it was connected with a bubble formation.

Using NVT and MA20 to estimate market sentiment from the Bitcoin price
The NVT ratio can be easily combined with the previous MA20 view in the weekly chart. The following plot shows the closing price of each week in blue, the moving average in red and the corresponding NVT ratio in a second panel in green.

As you can see, the NVT ratio is quite noisy. Willy Woo therefore always calculates a special moving average over 14 past and 14 future values in his observations. In a further development, the NVT signal developed by Dimitry Kalichkin, the last 90 days are averaged. In both cases the curves are much smoother, but with a very strong influence of the past.

Most popular applications

dApp instead of App: Decentralized Ethereum applications are slowly picking up speed. The much-vaunted potential of smart contracts has so far been reflected in the ICO boom. Although many ICOs promise revolutionary, decentralized apps for a broad spectrum of applications, only a few have made it to market. Here you can see the five dApps which, according to, had the most active users in the last 24 hours.

The meaningful logo of the Bitcoin secret

POWH3d is a decentralized file-sharing service that sells itself openly as a Bitcoin secret. With 242 users in the last 24 hours, POWH3D ranks 5th on our list. The dApp works like this: You buy a P3D token via a Smart Contract and pay for it with ETH. For every token you buy, its value increases by 0.00000001 ETH. Conversely, each time a Bitcoin secret token is sold, its value drops by the same amount. Thus, there is always enough ETH in the contract to be able to pay out every participant. There is no guarantee that the same price will be paid for the sale as for the purchase.

A fixed fee of ten percent is charged for each transaction. This is then distributed evenly as ETH to all other owners of the P3D token. Hodlers of the token are thus remunerated for the risk they took when purchasing P3D.

The Pow3d website reads like a satire on the crypto community as a whole. That’s what it says there, for example:

“No need to worry, you’re just entrusting your hard-earned ETH to an algorithmic Robo accountant running on a decentralized blockchain network created by a crazy Russian and run by Chinese GPU farms that have greater power requirements than most Third World countries […]. Welcome to the world of crypto currency!”

If that doesn’t seem phishy enough yet, you should take a look at the “Shill Kit” of the developer website. One thing you can’t accuse the creators of the dApp, whose logo is a pyramid, of anyway: Dishonesty.

CryptoKitties and cryptosoft

With 481 users in the last 24 hours CryptoKittes is the fourth most used cryptosoft dApp. It was also one of the first dApps to achieve a certain degree of popularity outside the crypto scene. Here is more about it: The game is about individually breeding, collecting and exchanging different cartoon kittens.

Technically speaking, the CryptoKitties are ERC-721 tokens. As so-called “non-fungible” tokens, their value results from their uniqueness, which makes them collector’s items, so to speak. CryptoKitties co-founder Arthur Camara therefore assumes that the ERC-721 standard can be used in the future to tokenize real objects such as works of art or real estate.

The digital four-legged friends experienced a real hype in December last year: 1,325,883 beaten transactions were processed via the Smart Contract. Since then, the daily user numbers of the dApp have declined sharply. dAppRadar has only recorded 480 users in the last 24 hours.

The BANCOR logo
With 547 users in the last 24 hours, Bancor’s dApp is ranked third. Bancor sees itself as a market maker that enables trading in over 100 ERC-20 tokens. However, this does not bring buyers and sellers together, as is the case with traditional stock exchanges; instead, an exchange can be carried out without a counterparty. Bancor promises a stable liquidity of the system. So-called “smart tokens” play a central role, above all the company’s own BNT, with the help of which other tokens can be held in reserve.

In 2017, Bancor held an extremely successful ICO: In just three hours, 400,000 ETH were exchanged for BNT. This corresponded to a volume of 153 million US dollars. The ICO did not run off without problems, as you can read here.

2nd place – ForkDelta
ForkDelta is a decentralized exchange for trading Ether and ERC-20 tokens. The dApp emerged from a fork in the EtherDelta. Arseniy Ivanov, the initiator of the project, explained his decision to split on Reddit in January:

“The recent events at EtherDelta have caused many of us headaches. The lack of communication after the hack, the ICO […], the lack of improvement – all this shows that EtherDelta has moved away from its original idea […]”.

The dApp continues to be based on EtherDelta’s programming interface and smart contract. A new API was announced for the first quarter of this year, but has yet to be released. Also a new Sma

The 10 Greatest Myths about Crypto Currencies

In the series “The 10 biggest myths about crypto currencies” we would like to take a closer look at the 10 most common claims concerning crypto currencies and their chances and risks. We will daily a new myth vorknöpfen and check this for correctness.

Crypto currencies have no intrinsic value

What determines the value of a currency? To determine this, let us venture a little excursion into the history of money and currency. Since it was first used, money has fulfilled two central functions: that of preserving value and that of exchange. Money thus had a decisive advantage over the previously predominant trade in goods, which it replaced by making values conservable over longer periods of time and transportable over longer distances, properties that goods and services are not (always) capable of providing.

At the beginning of money trading there were natural goods to which a certain value was ascribed. These could be shells, rare stones or weights, depending on regional characteristics. However, they had in common that the exchange value attributed to them exceeded the material value. Over time, gold, silver and, to a lesser extent, other precious metals were able to crystallize out as dominant exchange items. In order to give the whole thing a state verification, governments began to mint official coins and only recognise them as means of payment in their territory.

Coin minting was an important step in the development of money, as it for the first time created trust among citizens in a fixed value of the object of exchange guaranteed by the state. Trust is the key word here, because trust is what gives our money its legitimacy as a means of payment even today. With the advent of paper money and electronic money, money has evolved from an intrinsic value to an object whose value depends solely on trust in its acceptance. We accept money for a service because we believe that for this money at another time a service of comparable value will be returned.

But what about crypto currencies?

Money therefore derives its value from trust, or more precisely from trust in institutions such as the state or the central bank. But what about crypto currencies, which are deliberately decentralised and thus organised beyond any state control? Here, the users’ trust in the institutions as intermediaries is replaced by their trust in the blockchain and its algorithm. The intrinsic value of money in crypto currencies is therefore basically no different from the intrinsic value of money in fiat currencies.

If the question of the value of a currency is decoupled from the factor of trust and only the material component is considered, a completely different picture emerges. Thus, central bank money, at the latest since the abolition of the international gold standard, is covered at most by the value of the paper on which it is printed. The majority of crypto currencies, on the other hand, have a high production value, which results from the mechanism by which these coins are produced. In the proof-of-work algorithm, on which the Bitcoin is based among other things, the miners are rewarded for providing their computer computing power for the network with the distribution of new units of the crypto currency. The manufacturing value of the crypto currency thus corresponds to the computing and hardware power provided. Compared to Fiat money, this is a much more cost-intensive process, especially since monetary expansions such as those possible at a central bank are unthinkable in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins and even the prospecting of the blocks cannot simply be accelerated. These limits keep Bitcoin tight, which in turn has a positive effect on value stability.

This myth can therefore not only be rejected, but in a way also makes a relativization of the term “intrinsic value” necessary. The value of any currency whose exchange value does not correspond exactly to its material value is trust. Only collective trust in the sense of broad acceptance among the population and companies creates lasting and stable values. The process of confidence building and adaptation takes many years and has to struggle with great resistance and setbacks. Nevertheless, crypto currencies seem to be on the right track.